Who will win the 2026 Oscars? An evening full of plot twists awaits us

It had been years since an Oscar race was this unpredictable, and that’s exactly what makes it exciting. The awards season, especially in recent years, had been marked by a certain linearity. Arriving as the final piece of an award season that had become rather long, the night ends up being merely the culmination of a journey that directors, screenwriters, actors, and crew start months in advance. A process that takes away some of that mischievous pleasure in seeing underhanded moves and backstabbing among nominees, or at least in adding some spice during the actual Academy ceremony.

Lately, Oscar night had become an event lacking a genuine sense of showmanship, reduced to handing out awards accompanied by entertainment that is often monotonous and colorless, with only a few surprises in a general picture that seems to have been already written.

But let’s look at the predictions for the 2026 Oscars, which will take place on the night between March 15 and 16.

Timothée Chalamet might not win the Oscar

One of the most striking events in Oscar history dates back to 2017: the mystery of the swapped envelope between Moonlight and La La Land. There were also some sudden wins, like the second statuette for Anthony Hopkins instead of the posthumous award for Chadwick Boseman in 2021, or the one taken last year by Mickey Madison from Demi Moore in pure The Substance style. This year, the cards could be reshuffled at any moment, for a race that seemed even more intense given the record nominations achieved by The Sinners and the marketing campaign of Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme, even though it backfired on him.

The only one who was supposed to be certain, the golden boy who landed one of the roles of a lifetime at just thirty, went from undisputed winner to last in line due, apparently, to a certain arrogance that did not sit well with the Academy voters. Evidently, they didn’t care about the promotional effort Chalamet put in to bring Josh Safdie’s film to theaters, which at least achieved $159 million globally at the box office.

Chalamet’s latest misstep came with the controversy over opera and ballet, declared dead arts that no one cares about, which thankfully escalated only twenty-four hours before the Academy voting closed. There’s no doubt it was an unpleasant comment, but the reaction seems driven more by the dislike he is generating and the satisfaction of seeing him falter.

In fact, we should thank Chalamet for giving us another marketing campaign at its finest, with opera theaters worldwide riding the wave of his style fall, which also showed how engaged and alive their audience actually is. At this point, knowing the advertising tactics of the actor and producer of Marty Supreme, the controversy of recent days could even be a pre-announcement by Chalamet of a future theater role? Never say never.

The rise of Michael B. Jordan

Leaving aside opera and ballet, the real blow that derailed Timothée Chalamet’s obstacle race to the Oscars was the win by Michael B. Jordan during the Actor Awards (SAG), awards given by actors for actors. The same award Chalamet won last year for his role as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, which led him to declare he wanted to become «one of the greats.»

Did his peers think last year’s recognition was enough? Or has the wind truly shifted in Jordan’s favor? What is certain is the affection that audiences and the industry continue to show toward Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s film, which could take home the biggest awards. However, we hope the directing Oscar goes to the still unawarded Paul Thomas Anderson for his work on One Battle After Another.

One Battle After Another could easily win Best Adapted Screenplay, based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon, without clashing directly with the Original Screenplay award, which might go to Sinners. But the directing award to PTA would be the pinnacle of a career achieved through a meticulous reconstruction of a country’s, the United States', dangerous contradictions. A film that, like many this year, reaches peaks of excellence and confirms that the Los Angeles-based director can communicate with contemporary times while remaining timeless. A filmmaker who doesn’t need an Oscar, though it always looks impressive on a kitchen shelf.

The wildcard of this edition

This year, the real wildcard of the Oscars, along with Best Picture, is the actors. Apart from Timothée Chalamet, the only certainty should be Jessie Buckley as Best Actress, whose performance in Hamnet by Chloé Zhao avoided the long (perhaps too long?) race that started at Sundance 2025 with Rose Byrne in If Only I Could Kick You.

The best supporting actors will be the real battlefield of the 2026 Oscars, with the Critics’ Choice going to Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, the Golden Globe to Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value, and the Actor Awards to Sean Penn for One Battle After Another. However, since the Actor Awards gave Best Cast to Sinners, it suggests that its actors have a real chance - including casting director Francine Maisler.

It’s not just about Michael B. Jordan, but also Wunmi Mosaku, who could take the Oscar from Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another, unless the Academy feels adventurous and awards a horror performer like Amy Madigan for Weapons, the sole nominee for Zach Cregger’s film - again, three supporting actresses awarded in turn during the awards season.

A year marked by unpredictability

The challenge for Best International Film will be beautiful, with two of the contenders also in the Best Picture category (The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value). An impeccable shortlist, though many noticed the absence of No Other Choice by Park Chan-wook. In any case, it’s impossible to remove any of the titles, from the political engagement of The Voice of Hind Rajab and A Simple Incident to the ascetic adrenaline of Sirāt, with the films of Joachim Trier and Kleber Mendonça Filho in pole position for the Oscar.

It would be a real plot twist if Wagner Moura from The Secret Agent overtakes both Chalamet and Jordan, in a comeback following the awards received at Cannes 2025 and the Golden Globes for a film that reaffirms the lifeblood of Brazilian cinema even after last year’s I’m Still Here by Walter Salles.

Will Hollywood choose this year the path of plot twists, last-minute surprises, and bold moves that can upset the table? We at least hope the ceremony is lively and engaging, and if they don’t know what to do, it would be fine to replay the soundtrack of Kpop Demon Hunters at every interlude, (almost) certainly the winner of Best Animated Film and, above all, its irresistible song Golden. The only track able to compete in 2025 with the vampiric blues of Sinners, which, when it comes to music and composer Ludwig Göransson, likely already has an Oscar in the bag.