What consequences will the war in Iran have on the Italian industry? The rise in energy prices risks putting the country’s markets under further strain, fashion included

Due to time zone differences, Asian stock markets are the first to open every morning: for the third consecutive day since the war in Iran began they have recorded rather worrying results. The blockage, following the conflict, of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz – which connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and separates the Arabian Peninsula from Iran, which controls one of its shores – has caused a widespread increase in hydrocarbon prices, given that about a fifth of the oil traded globally passes through it, along with large quantities of natural gas.

Investors fear that the ongoing war could trigger a new global energy crisis. Western markets are also facing difficult days: U.S. and European stock markets have recorded negative results for several days. The contradictory statements from the Trump administration regarding the duration of the war are not helping either – and the repercussions on financial markets are evident: the Spanish and Italian stock exchanges have seen sharp declines, and the same applies to those in Paris and London.

Specifically, among the stocks performing worst on the market are those in the airline sector, mainly due to the closure of many hubs in the Middle East, including the one in Dubai, which is one of the busiest in the world. Banks are also performing very poorly, as they are traditionally more exposed to a potential economic crisis. As expected, the only companies that for the moment are not suffering from the consequences of the war are those that sell weapons and those operating in the energy sector, which will benefit from the resulting increase in costs for consumers.

The price of oil has risen by 8%, temporarily reaching the highest levels since July 2024, while the price of gas has increased by 70%. All of this has contributed to rising gasoline prices: in the United States they have increased on average by about ten percentage points. There have also been repercussions in Italy, where the cost of gasoline has increased by 6% and that of diesel by 16% – an increase that has already translated into higher recommended prices for distributors set by companies.

The repercussions on the energy sector

The rise in energy prices risks having significant consequences for the European industrial sector, including the Italian one. The country’s production system is particularly exposed to fluctuations in energy costs, because many manufacturing activities – from steel production to chemicals, as well as ceramics and glass manufacturing – depend heavily on gas and electricity. A similar dynamic had already occurred in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when the sharp increase in gas prices had put many companies under pressure, forcing some of them to reduce production or temporarily suspend it. If the conflict in the Middle East were to trigger – as analysts and investors expect – a new energy crisis, companies already exposed to rising costs could find themselves in even greater difficulty, with direct consequences for employment and international competitiveness.

This is a huge problem for European countries, which since the beginning of the war in Ukraine had replaced part of their Russian gas supplies with gas coming from Qatar, which alone accounts for about a fifth of global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG), also used in Europe to produce a significant share of the electricity supplied to businesses. However, Qatari exports depend almost entirely on maritime transport and largely pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently blocked due to the conflict. In this regard, the so-called Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – the most powerful military body in Iran, also known as the "pasdaran" – recently announced that all ships transiting through the strait risk being hit by missiles and drones launched in the area.

How will the fashion sector react?

The prolonged disruption of one of the world’s main commercial hubs would also have long-term repercussions on the fashion sector, one of the most important segments of the Italian economy. Although less energy-intensive than other sectors, the industry relies on a long production chain that includes weaving, dyeing and chemical processing of materials – all activities that are quite sensitive to energy costs. During the energy crisis following the war in Ukraine, many companies in the sector had already recorded a sharp increase in production costs, which in some cases translated into higher prices for consumers or reduced profit margins.

A new prolonged increase in gas and oil prices could therefore bring back the same difficulties, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises – which make up a large part of the Italian fashion supply chain. In a context of greater economic uncertainty, moreover, goods that are widely considered non-essential – such as luxury items – tend to be among the first on which consumers reduce spending, with direct repercussions for producing companies.