Is Italy less prepared than other countries for the imminent energy crisis? Yes, also due to a reluctance to promote renewable energy sources.

The war in the Middle East is causing a sharp rise in oil and gas prices, the two most widely used energy sources globally, triggering an energy crisis whose effects could prove truly disastrous for the global economy. For Italy – despite being one of the most important European countries – the risk appears to be even higher than for other states. The reasons are both structural and political. First, the national economy today is more fragile than even a few years ago, and therefore less prepared to absorb a generalized increase in the prices of goods.

Secondly, after the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Italy – in line with the European position – replaced a significant portion of gas supplies coming from Moscow, relying instead on trading partners located in historically geopolitically unstable regions: for example, one of Italy’s main gas suppliers is Qatar, which is indeed involved in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Why Italy is at a disadvantage in energy

The Giorgia Meloni government in the years following the war in Ukraine – which triggered an energy crisis whose repercussions on the economy are still felt today – has not been fully able to replace certain energy suppliers initially chosen as a temporary solution (including Algeria and Azerbaijan), thus making them structural partners.

Qatar itself supplies Italy with about 10% of the total gas imported from abroad. Recently, an attack on the country’s main facility, Ras Laffan – which produces about 20% of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) circulating globally – drastically reduced its export capacity. Even once the conflict in the Middle East ends, it will take several years before the plant can operate at full capacity again.

Another factor that makes Italy more vulnerable than other countries to an imminent global energy crisis is the delay in the transition to renewable energy sources. Greater adoption of renewables would indeed help reduce some of the main risks of the Italian energy system, such as heavy dependence on imports and high exposure to international energy market fluctuations.

How the rest of Europe is coping

Considering the main European countries importing gas from the Gulf states, Italy’s position is the most delicate. In the first three months of 2025, about 6% of the gas transiting daily through the Strait of Hormuz – now practically blocked due to the conflict – was destined for Italy: nearly the same amount as the total imports of all European countries from that region.

For this reason, when limited supplies drive up the price of fossil fuels – that is, gas, oil, and coal – the consequences for households and businesses in Italy are felt more quickly and significantly than in other Western countries. Among the main European economies, Italy still depends most on these resources for energy production. In Spain, for example, over 50% of national energy comes from renewables, while in France about 60% is generated by nuclear, which in recent years has been included among sources considered sustainable. Within energy systems structured in this way, price increases in gas and oil tend to have a more contained impact on the national economy.

In recent years, however, the right-wing majority in Italy has done relatively little to accelerate the energy transition. In this field, the Meloni government has instead focused heavily on the so-called Mattei Plan, an economic cooperation project with African countries that remains largely undefined and, among other things, still seems to rely significantly on fossil fuels.