From May, many flights in Europe will be at risk Is it really true that we won’t be able to fly this summer?

Because of the war in Iran, thousands of flights could be cancelled in the coming months. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, has sent jet fuel prices soaring, nearly doubling in just a few weeks and surpassing $1,700 per tonne, according to the Telegraph. Not only is it more expensive, but above all it is less available and far less predictable: in Europe, for instance, the last shipment of jet fuel from the Middle East arrived on April 9. According to the Financial Times, before the conflict broke out, airlines had planned a capacity increase of 5.4% for April, now reduced to just 0.2%.

The latest updates, also reported by WWD, point to a more structural risk: if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz does not return to stable levels within the next few weeks, Europe could enter a phase of systemic shortages at airports as early as May. In Italy, airports such as Milan Linate, Venice, Treviso and Bologna have temporarily limited refuelling between April 2 and April 9 due to issues with a key supplier. For now, these are isolated cases, but they highlight how fragile the system has become.

Jet fuel crisis in Europe, how at risk are we really?

In Europe, the situation is still under control, but only on paper. Several airlines, as reported by Politico EU, have visibility over fuel supplies for another four to six weeks, but that margin is shrinking quickly. The issue is not just price, but the physical availability of fuel: if jet fuel doesn’t arrive, flights simply don’t take off.

The most delicate case remains the United Kingdom, which in recent months has sourced about half of its fuel from the Middle East after reducing its reliance on Russia. Michael O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, openly told Sky News that between 10% and 25% of supplies could be at risk in the coming weeks. Lufthansa has considered grounding up to 5% of its fleet, while SAS has cancelled around a thousand flights and Air France-KLM has introduced long-haul surcharges. Further complicating the situation are internal tensions such as the Lufthansa pilots’ strike, which has already led to hundreds of cancellations.

Flight cuts and rising prices in Asia

If in Europe the conversation is still about risk, in Asia it is already a full-blown crisis. Airlines in the region are among the most exposed, as they rely heavily on oil imports from the Middle East. As highlighted by the Financial Times, many carriers are already cutting routes and activating emergency measures to contain costs.

Korean Air has internally announced a shift to “emergency mode”, while Asiana Airlines has already cancelled several flights to China and Cambodia. Other airlines are raising ticket prices or adding fuel surcharges, while global players such as Cathay Pacific have started reducing capacity from May. In markets like Vietnam, airlines are openly discussing cuts of up to 20% of flights in the coming months.

According to the Guardian, the situation is so tense that some South Korean airlines have asked the government to block fuel exports and redirect them to the domestic market, putting countries such as Australia at risk, as it depends on imports for about 80% of its supply. At the same time, Japan has begun discussing possible refuelling restrictions, while in the Philippines a national energy emergency has been declared, with the concrete risk of planes being grounded.

Summer holidays 2026, should you book now or wait?

At this point, the question is inevitable: what happens to summer holidays? The answer is less certain than it may seem. Those who have already booked are, for now, relatively protected by European regulations, which require airlines to offer refunds and compensation for cancellations made within 14 days of departure. But if flights are cut earlier, airlines are not required to pay compensation.

In the short term, prices are likely to keep rising, as is already happening, with increases that several airlines estimate between 15% and 20%, while the reduction in global capacity — already underway across American, Asian and European carriers — could make some destinations less accessible. Booking now can therefore make sense to lock in still-manageable fares, but with the understanding that plans may still change.

In the worst-case scenario, which still seems extreme but no longer impossible, some routes could be suspended entirely, especially less profitable ones, reducing overall supply and leaving fewer options available. A more realistic outlook, however, is a summer of more expensive flights, fewer departures and longer routes designed to avoid certain areas, in an increasingly fragile balance between demand, costs and the actual availability of fuel.