I dazi di Trump saranno un problema per le auto tedesche

It was 2018 when President Trump—during his first term—told former French President Emmanuel Macron during a meeting that he would do everything in his power "to never see a Mercedes on 5th Avenue in New York again." Seven years later, the President's goal seems to remain the same. Across companies and governments worldwide, there is growing concern over the controversial tariffs recently announced by Trump. The measure risks disrupting international trade and exports to the U.S. market due to taxes that will penalize goods—with the real threat of a global recession and rising inflation. Fears have already impacted financial markets around the world: many investors are rushing to divest stocks in companies heavily exposed to U.S. trade, causing significant drops in share prices. One of the sectors hit hardest is the automotive industry, which was unsurprisingly the first to anticipate retaliatory actions. Volkswagen, currently facing a major crisis, announced it would introduce an extra fee on cars imported from the United States and informed local dealers of plans to revoke all existing discounts. The German company also decided to suspend access to all its vehicles pending U.S. entry.

According to estimates by Bloomberg, the potential implementation of Trump’s new tariffs could wipe out up to a quarter of the operating profits projected for 2026 for Porsche and Mercedes-Benz, forcing manufacturers to raise prices or relocate part of their production to the United States. For a brand like Porsche—already struggling in the Chinese market and now focused on exports to the U.S., which has become its most important foreign market—the impact could be particularly critical. Currently, the Stuttgart-based company has no production plants on U.S. soil, and American dealerships are entirely reliant on imports. Such structural dependence could backfire, even for giants like Volkswagen—already in crisis and ready to suspend discounts on imported vehicles—and BMW, which would be forced to operate in one of the most profitable markets with drastically reduced margins. However, it's not just luxury brands that would suffer: key suppliers like Bosch and Continental would also be hit by this new wave of protectionism. Bloomberg data confirms just how cross-cutting import reliance is: 80% of Volkswagen cars sold in the U.S. are made abroad, as are 63% of Mercedes-Benz and 52% of BMW vehicles.

"In 2024, German automotive brands poured nearly 450,000 vehicles into the U.S. market, equivalent to about $25 billion in sales. For Berlin, the U.S. remains the most important commercial destination for national products—even more so than the vast Chinese market," explains Il Manifesto. Furthermore, the supply chain for vehicles destined for the United States has long involved the entire North American region—not just the U.S., but also Mexico and Canada. In this context, the tariffs represent a major problem not only for cars entering the country but also for the trade of components and semi-finished parts, which are often shipped from one North American plant to another. For this reason, Il Manifesto refers to it as "an unbreakable embargo." According to a recent survey, over 80% of medium-sized German car companies expect to feel the impact of Trump’s imposed tariffs, which will likely not only affect large brands. For Germany, "with products costing 25% more for American consumers, overcoming the Trump era with minimal damage seems like an almost impossible mission." But the measure doesn't only hurt German companies. Stellantis, the Dutch-headquartered multinational, has already announced it will shut down production at two plants in Mexico and Canada, laying off nearly a thousand U.S. employees. Even Tesla did not welcome the new tariffs: Musk's company sources many components for its electric vehicles from various foreign countries, which are now subject to problematic U.S. levies.

Why Trump’s tariffs make no sense

The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, has openly stated that these tariffs risk slowing down the economic growth of the United States. In essence, the measure is supported only by the Trump administration. His staff believes that importing more goods than one exports to a country is a sign of commercial weakness. In reality, economic theory says otherwise. Tariffs are now considered by most experts to be outdated tools whose effectiveness has been questioned in light of decades of globalization. This kind of taxation often leads to counterproductive results. For instance, in 2018, Trump launched a trade war against China, which responded with its own tariffs—mainly on U.S. agricultural products—greatly harming the sector. The Trump administration was then forced to allocate nearly all the tariff revenue to support struggling farmers, canceling out any potential gain. If that wasn’t enough, the vast majority of economists have deemed the methodology behind the latest tariff calculations to be completely nonsensical. Trump's measure applies to over 100 countries around the world, including long-standing U.S. allies, such as Israel. Surprisingly, the list also includes uninhabited territories that naturally have no trade relationship with the United States. For example, the Heard and McDonald Islands, officially administered by Australia and located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, are mostly populated by penguins. Another odd target of U.S. tariffs is the British Indian Ocean Territories, between Tanzania and Indonesia, where the only human presence is U.S. military personnel stationed at a base.