How U.S. tariffs could actually boost Italian fashion

Could all U.S. tariffs end up helping Italian retail? Data suggests that American protectionist measures could paradoxically push even more tourists to shop in Italy, especially in the luxury sector. The tariff hikes threatened by Trump, if implemented, could lead to a double proportional increase in tax-free spending: a 10% tariff would translate into a 20% increase in American spending in Europe. This is according to Mathieu Grac, Vice President of Intelligence Strategy at Global Blue, in a report published by Il Sole 24Ore, highlighting how rising prices in the United States could push Americans to seek more advantageous alternatives elsewhere, with Italy positioning itself as a prime destination. This phenomenon builds on an already established trend. In 2023-2024, Italy recorded a 20% increase in tax-free spending by non-European citizens, making it the leading nation in Europe for tourist shopping. Between 2019 and 2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 6.6%, demonstrating how the country has managed to capture the post-pandemic tourism recovery better than other destinations. Leading this market were Americans, responsible for one in four purchases in 2024, with an impressive 26% growth over the last five years.  

Other data confirms the boost from non-European shoppers to Italian purchases. The reduction of the tax-free threshold to 70 euros, introduced by the 2024 Budget Law, brought half a million new shoppers, increasing transactions by 44% and spending value by 5%. The Turks, growing by 39%, took advantage of the new price range to purchase mainly artisanal products, marking a 56% increase in tax-free transactions in this segment. 2025 is opening with further positive signals. In the first months of the year, transactions in Italy grew by 12-15%, and the United States remains the market to watch. A Global Blue survey found that 91% of Americans plan to visit Europe this year and 64% intend to maintain or increase luxury spending. The depreciation of the yen has already shown how a favorable exchange rate can turn a country into a global shopping destination: Japan led the world in tax-free spending growth in 2024 thanks to this mechanism.  

Another significant insight comes from the study Travelers retail market in Italy, conducted by Deloitte for Global Blue, which highlights the multiplier effect of tourism on exports. In 2024, international travelers spent 54 billion euros in Italy, a 5% increase over 2023. Of this amount, 26% was allocated to shopping, marking a +10.6% increase compared to 2024. Spending by non-European tourists grew by 11.7%, while European spending recorded a CAGR of 5.6% between 2019 and 2024. If U.S. tariffs were to take effect, Italian retail could benefit further, attracting an increasing number of American buyers seeking better prices. The question now is whether Europe will become their go-to destination or if they will opt for alternative markets – the first being Canada. However, judging by the recent acrimony between the two countries (the new Canadian Prime Minister declared the friendship between the two nations "over"), it is hard to imagine many American tourists heading to Canada in the coming months. What is certain is that amid this uncertainty, Italy has already demonstrated its ability to seize these opportunities. But will American tourist dollars be enough to revive the country's fashion industry?