Young people made the difference in the American Midterm elections Far more American under-30s than expected voted for the Democratic Party

The United States recently held its midterm elections, which renewed all 435 seats in the House and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. The Democratic Party secured a solid majority in both chambers of Congress, performing better than expected across nearly the entire country: it won even in states where it hadn't been elected in decades and that until a few months ago were not considered competitive, such as Kansas and Texas. The Republicans, by contrast, suffered a decisive defeat, due in large part to Trump's growing unpopularity. The vote was seen above all as an initial assessment of his performance: the Democrats' overwhelming result will now inevitably have consequences for the final two years of his term.

It is considered normal for the sitting president's party to lose some congressional seats in midterm elections. The Republicans' defeat, however, was far heavier than expected: the last time the opposition party had won a majority in both the House and the Senate was in 2006, during the presidency of Republican George W. Bush, who three years earlier had launched the war in Iraq — considered one of the most unpopular wars of recent decades. This time, the scale of the defeat was such that even Trump congratulated the Democrats on their victory: an unusual move for a president who regularly speaks of fraud and conspiracies and who, in the past, had refused to acknowledge losing the 2020 presidential election, when he was defeated by Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

The shift in voting preferences among young American voters

The midterm elections took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and US media are now analyzing turnout data in detail to understand how different groups of voters cast their ballots: among the most striking trends is one involving young people. Two years ago they had been one of the key factors behind Trump's victory, whereas this time under-30 voters sided decisively with the Democratic Party. This is confirmed by data from the Voter Poll, the large-scale voter survey commissioned by major US news outlets and conducted by SSRS, an American research and polling firm, which for this survey interviewed a sample of approximately 80,000 people across the country. According to the survey, Democratic House candidates received 72% of the under-30 vote, compared to 25% for the Republicans.

According to CIRCLE (Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement), the authoritative research center at Tufts University in Massachusetts, which has been studying the political participation of young Americans for over twenty years, a gap of 47 percentage points in the under-30 vote had never been seen in a national election. The previous record dated back to the 2018 midterm elections, with 35 points. In 2024, when the House vote took place alongside the presidential election, the Democrats' advantage in this age group had been just 14 points.

What drove the Republican Party's defeat

One of the most significant data points from the recent elections concerns young men: in 2024, 56% of them had voted for Trump in the presidential election, whereas this year in the midterms nearly two in three chose a Democratic House candidate. The shift also affects groups that in 2024 had leaned predominantly Republican, such as young white voters. Even more striking was the movement in rural areas: in 2024 Trump had won 60% of the under-30 vote in these areas, while today the Democrats lead by 20 percentage points. The gap related to educational attainment has also nearly disappeared — for a long time one of the main distinguishing factors in US voting preferences.

Based on initial analyses, one of the campaigns that generated the most enthusiasm among young people, especially in urban centers, was that of Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who is 41 years old, Muslim, and belongs to the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party — alongside, for example, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. El-Sayed won a Senate seat in Michigan, a state traditionally contested between Republicans and Democrats, becoming the first Muslim senator in United States history. According to several observers, his election would demonstrate that candidates with more left-leaning positions can be a winning choice for the Democratic Party even outside the traditionally progressive major cities. For this reason, El-Sayed could be one of the most prominent figures in American politics in the years ahead.

More broadly, the midterm results highlighted the growing discontent of the American electorate with the Middle East war launched by Trump. The conflict was cited in numerous polls as one of the main sources of dissatisfaction with the current Republican administration, above all because of its economic repercussions and the resulting rise in the cost of living it has caused — not only in the United States. Several members of the Republican Party itself have also begun calling on Trump, more or less explicitly, to refocus on domestic policy priorities, in keeping with the much-touted principle of America First. "The reason we lost is the war [in Iran]," US Vice President JD Vance wrote on X.