Even Hermès has been hit by the luxury crisis Growth over the past few months is slightly below expectations, but the real issue is the stock

After months of virtually unchecked growth, Hermès is beginning to slow down as well, due to the luxury crisis. The company, which yesterday released its results for the third quarter of 2026, grew by 4.3% at constant exchange rates, reaching revenues of 4.1 billion euros. These are solid results, but roughly one percentage point below analyst expectations and, most importantly, they represent growth cut in half compared to the same period last year, when the brand had grown by +9.6%. In short, winter appears to be coming even for the most indestructible of brands. But the problem lies elsewhere too — namely, on the stock market.

Speaking to WWD, Luca Solca described «an overall challenging commercial environment», while chairman and chief executive Axel Dumas said: «Confident in the strength and relevance of our artisanal model, we hold a vision firmly anchored in the long term and look to the future with confidence». Indeed, at the start of 2027 the brand could be back on everyone's lips with the menswear debut of Grace Wales Bonner (which may well become the male equivalent of Blazy-mania) and Nadège Vanhée's entry into haute couture. But how did things play out in detail?

A world divided

One interesting point is that bags and leather goods continued to drive the French group's accounts, even in more challenging markets such as the Americas and Europe, while progress appears to have stalled in China and other regions: Asia (meaning China) remained flat at 1.9%, while the Middle East declined by 4.5%. Europe posted the strongest performance, with a rise of 7.2% at constant exchange rates. Sales in France grew by 3.6%, while the rest of the continent recorded a +9.5% gain. Japan alone grew by 9.6%, and the Americas achieved an increase of 8.8% in the three months ending in late September.

Leather goods, as mentioned, saw an increase of 10.8% at constant exchange rates. Fragrances and beauty (+7.5%) and the group's subsidiary companies (John Lobb, Saint-Louis, Puiforcat) also performed well, advancing by 10.5%. Silk scarves posted a modest +1.4%. Declining categories included ready-to-wear and accessories, down 2%, and jewellery and home products, which fell 1.1%. Watches continued to represent the weakest link, with a sharp decline of 6%. But the most concerning aspect remains Hermès's stock market performance, which has been penalised by the slower growth.

Shares in decline

This year, on the stock market, Hermès has fared rather poorly, with an overall decline of around 36% since January. The drop has been enough to wipe out all the value gains accumulated over recent years and push the company well below its best historical results. To put it simply: in January, a single share cost 2,100–2,120 euros, and today it costs 1,255. The sharpest downturn came last March, which — even accounting for some technical rebounds — marked a decisive overall decline.

From January to today, the share has therefore lost approximately 750–800 euros per share, with a year-to-date performance estimated at between -36% and -36.5% depending on the date of measurement. On a twelve-month basis — looking at the same period in the previous year — the decline is even steeper, at around 38–39%. Market capitalisation has contracted accordingly, falling from over 220 billion euros to approximately 140–142 billion.

It should be noted, however, that this poor performance does not reflect any "impoverishment" of the brand itself. It should be read as a signal of a luxury market running at reduced speed, since this decline reflects investor scepticism towards a brand that, in their view, should have corrected or at least remained insulated from the freeze in Asian consumer spending: the market has penalised the stock for the absence of structural recovery signals in Asia and for the deceleration in growth rates compared to previous years. This is, in essence, a rerating of valuations and a more cautious stance on the part of investors.

To take the opposite example: after Brunello Cucinelli revised its 2026 revenue projections upward, reinforcing investor confidence, its share price rose six percentage points on the stock market — even though the price of a single Brunello Cucinelli share is in fact more than ten times lower than a share in Hermès. Similarly, Kering shares have technically performed better, yet a single Kering share is still worth six times less than a Hermès share at its historical low.